Group on Governance of Climate Change
GGCC - UPC
Our goal is to influence international negotiations on climate change so that equity and climate justice are finally included in the fight against climate change.
ID: 330742250226-20
Lobbying Activity
Response to 2040 Climate Target Plan
22 Jun 2023
The remaining Global Carbon Budget (GCB) compatible with the temperature stabilization goal of the climate Paris Agreement is a key planetary limit that the European Union (EU27) and all Parties to such Agreement should consider when reviewing and updating the mitigation commitments of their NDCs. There is a large amount of literature that highlights the unequal historical distribution of cumulative emissions among countries, pointing out the need to reserve carbon space -as a key portion of the remaining GCB- to developing countries for their development. A fair distribution of the remaining GCB among countries could be done considering as a basis the four dimensions identified by the IPCC AR5 for equitable mitigation, which are: responsibility, equality, capacity, and right to development. Developed countries, including the EU27, have a large economic and technological capacity and are responsible for a large share of historical cumulative emissions, therefore they should leave carbon space to some developing countries, especially LDCs and SIDS, in order to improve their level of well-being and in light of their right to development. Although the EU27 does not bear the same historical emissions per capita levels as Annex I parties of the UNFCCC as a whole, it still bears a much greater historical responsibility than the world overall and Non-Annex I parties. Population of developed countries, including the EU27, bears a much higher level of development than developing nations and the world as a whole. Considering the enormous development challenges that countries in the Global South currently face, there is a need for the EU27 to ensure a fair distribution of the remaining GCB. A distribution of the remaining GCB for keeping temperature increase in 1.5 °C (with 67% probability) based on equity, dictates that the EU27 should be allocated 3.5% of the remaining GCB, this is 13911 MtCO2, from 2020 onwards. Mitigation pathways compatible with this carbon budget reach net-zero CO2 emissions between 2030 and 2040. When only considering an egalitarian allocation of the global carbon budget (i.e., leaving aside the historical responsibility, capability and the right to development) the carbon budget allocated to the EU amounts to 5% of the remaining GCB, which is 19859 MtCO2, from 2020 onwards. The mitigation pathways compatible with this carbon budget reach net-zero between 2035 and 2045. Therefore, equity and equality should not be confused. Based on the EUs current commitment, the carbon budget that the EU27 will use during the period between 2020-2050 assuming a linear mitigation pathway, amounts to 35745 MtCO2. In fact, the cumulative emissions from 2020-2030 will reach 21696 MtCO2, which exceeds the carbon budget that would correspond to the EU27 based on both an equity-based distribution and an egalitarian distribution. Therefore, the EU27 current commitments are not compatible with an equitable nor an egalitarian distribution of the 1.5 °C GCB. This confirms that the level of ambition to reduce emissions must be increased considerably to maintain temperatures below 1.5 °C and to keep some atmospheric space for developing countries to continue with their development. The EU27 has played a key role in shaping and leading the negotiations and agreements in the multilateral space that has settled the path to a global decarbonized economy. In order to confirm its leadership and commitment to a fair climate-compatible development globally that ensures decarbonization pathways in line with the international agreements and its long-term temperature goals, the EU27 climate mitigation efforts should look both inside and outside the EU27, and therefore increase its ambition and fairness.
Read full response